Psychological Pressure in Competitive Environments: New Evidence from Randomized Natural Experiments

Dynamic competitive settings may create psychological pressure when feedback about the performance of competitors is provided before the end of the competition. Such psychological pressure could produce a first-mover advantage, despite a priori equal winning probabilities. Using data from a randomized natural experiment – penalty shootouts in soccer – we re-examine evidence by Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta (2010) who report a 21percentage point advantage for first-movers over second-movers in terms of winning probabilities. Extending their sample of 129 shootouts to 540 we fail to detect any significant first-mover advantage. Our results are fully consistent with recent evidence from other sports contests. JEL-classification: C93